Saola
The Vietnam Tariff & Origin Monitor

Vietnam sourcing, tracked in real time.

We follow every US determination that touches Vietnam, from Section 301 to the 40% transshipment penalty, and tell you by HS code what it means for your orders. It's free, specific, and legally careful.

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Section 122 — temporary 10% tariff
   daysuntil expiry (~Jul 24, 2026)

The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs on Feb 20, 2026. A temporary Section 122 global 10% (capped 15%) replaced them, and it is set to expire. What comes next is the Section 301 docket below.

The 2026 chronology: what actually happened

The US rebuilt its tariff system twice in twelve months. Here is the regime as it stands, in order, with nothing inflated. Dates and authorities matter more than headlines.

Last reviewed: Jul 15, 2026
  1. Jul 2025

    20% Vietnam reciprocal tariff + a 40% transshipment penalty

    The US set Vietnam's reciprocal tariff at 20% and layered on a 40% penalty for transshipped goods, a penalty that cannot be reduced through standard mitigation. The same order created a biannual CBP list of circumvention-associated countries and facilities. Vietnam was flagged elevated-risk.

    Enforcement architecture · activeExecutive order (law-firm alerts; verifying against EO text)
  2. Aug 29, 2025

    De minimis duty-free entry suspended globally

    Every parcel, any value, now needs formal entry. E-commerce importers lost the tariff workaround they had relied on.

    ActiveCBP / Federal Register
  3. Oct 26, 2025Tracked by Saola

    US–Vietnam framework agreement

    The 20% rate is maintained, and some products move to 0% under Annex III. Notably, the framework is silent on the 40% transshipment penalty: enforcement lives in executive orders, not the deal.

    ActiveFramework agreement (verified)
  4. Feb 20, 2026

    Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs

    The IEEPA tariffs were struck down and replaced by a temporary Section 122 global 10% (capped 15%). Importers may be owed refunds. The administration is not volunteering them.

    Struck down → replacedCRS / multi-source
  5. Mar 11, 2026Tracked by Saola

    Two Section 301 investigations that name Vietnam

    USTR opened two Section 301 investigations naming Vietnam directly: one on manufacturing overcapacity (16 countries), one on forced-labor enforcement (60 countries). Section 301 is the durable, court-tested authority and the likely vehicle for whatever tariff regime comes next. Determinations are expected mid-to-late 2026.

    Pending · the one to watchUSTR docket (verified)
  6. ~Jul 24, 2026Tracked by Saola

    Section 122 temporary tariff expires

    The temporary 10% (capped 15%) is set to lapse. What replaces it is, most likely, decided on the Section 301 docket above.

    Expiring · see countdownCRS / multi-source
  7. Apr 29, 2025Tracked by Saola

    Vietnam's own origin enforcement — Decision 467/QD-CHQ

    Vietnam Customs adopted risk-based origin inspections: C/O document review and on-site factory inspections where transshipment is suspected. Origin scrutiny now runs from both ends of the trade.

    ActiveVietnam Customs (verified)

Latest from the Monitor

A sample of recent issues. Subscribers get these the day they ship, plus the per-HS-code impact notes.

Issue 13

Reading the two Section 301 investigations without the spin

Overcapacity vs forced-labor enforcement: what each could actually do to Vietnam-origin goods, and which categories are most exposed.

Furniture/wood · Food/agriRead issue
Issue 12

The 40% transshipment penalty, in plain English

Why it can't be mitigated the usual way, what the CBP circumvention list means for your supplier, and the documents that actually answer "where did this come from?"

Plastics/rubber · PackagingRead issue
Issue 11

De minimis is gone: what changed for small-parcel importers

Formal entry on every parcel resets the math for e-commerce sellers sourcing Vietnam. A short, practical read.

All categoriesRead issue

Don't read it here a week late.

What it means for your HS code

Headlines move markets; HS codes move your landed cost. Every Monitor issue breaks policy down to the codes our buyers actually import. Here's the shape of one.

Sample · HS 4819.10 — corrugated cartons & boxes
Origin-documentation exposure: HIGH
What changed
Packaging inputs (paper/film) are frequently Chinese-origin, and the 40% transshipment penalty cannot be mitigated the usual way once CBP flags circumvention.
Why it hits this code
A box converted in Vietnam from Chinese kraft may or may not clear CBP's substantial-transformation lens. The label says Vietnam. The question is whether the evidence does.
What to check on your supplier
Ask for the input BOM, the C/O issuance history, and process evidence from the factory floor. That is exactly what a Saola Origin Pre-Check assembles.

Impact notes are evidence and risk assessment, not a customs ruling or legal advice.

Categories we trackSee the verified landscape

Why this read is different

Built on ground truth

We don't just track filings. Saola runs a physical verification network inside Vietnam's Southern industrial corridor, with people standing on factory floors and reading Vietnamese documents. The Monitor is the policy edge of that work.

Legally-clean data

Our intelligence comes from US bills of lading, public registries, and documents suppliers consent to share. We never touch gray-market customs data.

Specific and sourced

Every claim carries a date, a source, and a status. We label what's verified, what's pending, and what's a judgment call.

Saola provides evidence and risk assessment, not a guaranteed customs outcome or legal ruling. The Monitor is information, not advice. We tell you what we know, how we know it, and where the uncertainty is.

Reading the regime is step one. Proving your supplier is step two.

When you're ready to move from monitoring to evidence, Saola verifies Vietnamese factories on the ground and gives you the proof.

Origin Pre-Check

You get a BOM-level input map, a substantial-transformation assessment against CBP criteria, and a documentation-readiness report. It is evidence and assessment, not a guaranteed ruling.

Verified Shortlist

You get five to eight matched, physically verified Vietnamese factories, each with a full evidence dossier and an origin-risk flag.

If you're new, start with the Monitor: it's free, and it will tell you whether you even have an origin problem before you spend a dollar.

Be the first to know what the Section 301 docket decides.

When the determinations land mid-to-late 2026, subscribers hear it first — with the HS-code impact notes the same day.

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